[ET Net News Agency, 12 November 2024] The next U.S. President Trump has reportedly
assigned hawks to be responsible for foreign affairs and national security affairs.
Sino-U.S. relations are becoming tense, and the Mainland China's boosting policies have
disappointed the market. Peripheral funds are reported to be withdrawing from Chinese
stock ETFs. In addition, according to the estimate of the data of People's Bank of China,
new loans in October were RMB 490 billion, far lower than the RMB 1.59 trillion in
September and the lowest in three months. The increase in social financing in the same
month was also lower than expected, reflecting that after a series of measures, corporate
financing confidence is still insufficient.
The RMB continued to weaken, and the Hang Seng Index failed to follow the external
strength, maintaining a narrow range in the early stage. Meituan (03690) continued to
expand its intraday losses, closing down 5.2% in the half-day, dragging the Hang Seng
Index downward, and the half-day decline expanded to 353 points or 1.7%, reported at
20,073 points, as low as 20,057 points, a new low in more than three weeks, holding the
20,000 mark.
The main board's half-day turnover was HKD 102.3 billion. The Hang Seng China
Enterprises Index was at 7,219, down 135 points or 1.8%. The Hang Seng Tech Index reported
at 4,547, down 104 points or 2.2%.

"Kwok Ka Yiu: it is inevitable that the Hang Seng Index will fall below 20,000, and
Tencent's quarterly results are expected to stabilize the market"

Trump's victory has led to continued gains in U.S. assets, but on the other hand, China
is at risk of being suppressed. Hong Kong stocks have been affected by correction pressure
in recent days. After the dispute this morning, the Hang Seng Index extended its decline
to more than 300 points. It reached a low of 20,095 in half a day and is on the verge of
20,000. Independent stock commentator Kwok Ka Yiu told ET Net News Agency that the
sentiment in Hong Kong stocks has turned weak recently. The continued strength of the US
dollar in the short term has put pressure on the RMB, which is not good for Hong Kong
stocks. It is inevitable that the Hang Seng Index will fall below 20,000. In the short
term, good catalytic news will be needed to alleviate short-term selling pressure. He
mentioned that the market is looking forward to another big move at the Central Economic
Work Conference in December. The support of the Hang Seng Index will move down to the
50-day line around 19,600 to 19,700. It is expected that Tencent (00700) quarterly
results, which will be released tomorrow, will stabilize the market. .

"Investors can consider buying gold when the price is USD 2,600, but the price will not
bottom out in the short term"

The U.S. dollar, U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies have been rising in recent days, with
large amounts of funds pouring in. On the contrary, the price of gold fell sharply and New
York gold futures plunged nearly 3% to about USD 2,620 the previous night. Kwok Ka Yiu
analysed that there is obvious downward pressure on gold prices in the short term. With
the geopolitical situation and inflation concerns due to Trump's victory, the medium and
long-term gold prices are still expected to rebound. Short-term capital risk appetite has
increased, and the main players are pursuing the "Trump trade". It will be detrimental to
the short-term performance of gold prices.
He believes that investors does not buy gold for short-term speculation. They should
focus on asset allocation to hedge risks. If they intend to invest on the performance of
gold prices in the medium and long term, they should seize the opportunity to buy gold
when the price falls. He consistently recommends gold price ETFs such as SPDR Gold (02840)
as an investment on gold price. They reflect the gold price more stable than gold mining
stocks. He believes that current gold allocation can account for 5% to 10% of the
investment portfolio for hedging purposes.
He believes that it is difficult to say where the short-term gold price is the lowest,
but based on the above, it is appropriate to make mid- and long-term hedging arrangements;
and the current adjustment has reached 7% to 8%, and the support level of USD 2,600 can be
considered for buying. The subsequent performance of gold prices will depend on factors
such as when the "Trump trade" craze ends and whether the trade war will return.